Cruzeiro

2 - 1

Bragantino

Home Fortress Cruzeiro: 5-Game Unbeaten Run at Home.

Sun, Apr 12, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 57%
D: 29%
Away: 14%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.86 - 3.33 - 2.86)
HOMETEAM: 35%
30%
AWAYTEAM: 35%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (52.63)
Intensity: [Moderate] (47.37)

Cruzeiro (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 50% in this event.

Bragantino (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Cruzeiro:
T : 0.100 (0.340 / ▼0.240)
H : 0.200 (0.592 / ▼0.392)
P : 0.167 (0.398 / ▼0.231)

Bragantino:
T : 0.400 (0.500 / ▼0.100)
A : 0.400 (0.340 / ▲0.060)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 50%
0%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
0%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 30%
40%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 40%
40%
Underdog : 20%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Cruzeiro : 36% (▲ 1%)
28% (▼ 2%)
Bragantino : 36% (▲ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Cruzeiro : 38% (▲ 3%)
27% (▼ 3%)
Bragantino : 35% (-)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.5 - 4.2
Cruzeiro : 51% (▲ 16%)
27% (▼ 3%)
Bragantino : 22% (▼ 13%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 11 game(s)

HOME : 55%
D : 36%
AWAY : 9%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (51%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 40%
AWAY : 10%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 57%
D : 30%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (51%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 56%
D : 27%
AWAY : 17%


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