Strasbourg

3 - 1

Lyon

Milestone: Strasbourg hit 2 matches without a loss.

Sun, Feb 22, 2026 19:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 20%
Away: 40%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.57 - 5.56 - 1.85)
HOMETEAM: 28%
18%
AWAYTEAM: 54%

Strasbourg (Fact Index 3.57): Expected Win % is 28%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.

Lyon (Fact Index 1.85): Expected Win % is 54%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 40%
10%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 67%
11%
Underdog : 22%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Strasbourg : 33% (▲ 5%)
22% (▲ 4%)
Lyon : 45% (▼ 9%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.9 (Model B.3)
Strasbourg : 29% (▲ 1%)
24% (▲ 6%)
Lyon : 47% (▼ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: v B.3 / 90.5)


Average Odds : 2.4 - 3.6 - 2.9
Strasbourg : 40% (▲ 12%)
27% (▲ 9%)
Lyon : 33% (▼ 21%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 37%
D : 43%
AWAY : 20%

Hometeam = 2.4 Trend:

HOME : 36%
D : 37%
AWAY : 27%

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