Fluminense

2 - 1

Sao Paulo

Unbeaten at Home: Fluminense's Run Hits 3. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo Away Woes Continue: 4th Straight Loss.

Sat, May 16, 2026 23:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 56%
D: 11%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.04 - 6.25 - 2.86)
HOMETEAM: 49%
16%
AWAYTEAM: 35%

Weight: [Adjacent] (5.26)
Intensity: [Extreme] (94.74)

Fluminense (Fact Index 2.04):
Expected Win % is 49%, compared to a 67% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Sao Paulo (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 11% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Fluminense:
T : 0.533 (0.572 / ▼0.039)
H : 0.750 (0.660 / ▲0.090)
P : 0.333 (0.466 / ▼0.133)

Sao Paulo:
T : 0.467 (0.587 / ▼0.120)
A : 0.250 (0.398 / ▼0.148)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 9 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 67%
22%
AWAY : 11%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 8 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 87%
13%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Fluminense : 58% (▲ 9%)
19% (▲ 3%)
Sao Paulo : 23% (▼ 12%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.3 - 1.4 (Model B.4)
Fluminense : 54% (▲ 5%)
25% (▲ 9%)
Sao Paulo : 21% (▼ 14%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 81%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.4 - 4.0
Fluminense : 50% (▲ 1%)
27% (▲ 11%)
Sao Paulo : 23% (▼ 12%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 10 game(s)

HOME : 70%
D : 0%
AWAY : 30%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 17%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 57%
D : 23%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 40%
AWAY : 13%


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