Nijmegen

2 - 2

Excelsior

7 Unbeaten for Excelsior on the Road.

Tue, Sep 8, 2026 16:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 57%
D: 29%
Away: 14%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.78 - 5.88 - 2.13)
HOMETEAM: 36%
17%
AWAYTEAM: 47%

Weight: [Close] (23.53)
Intensity: [Fierce] (76.47)

Nijmegen (Fact Index 2.78):
Expected Win % is 36%, compared to a 27% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Excelsior (Fact Index 2.13):
Expected Win % is 47%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Nijmegen:
T : 0.500 (0.581 / ▼0.081)
P : 0.500 (0.581 / ▼0.081)

Excelsior:
T : 0.750 (0.827 / ▼0.077)
P : 0.750 (0.827 / ▼0.077)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
50%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
50%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 27%
40%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 25 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 40%
44%
Underdog : 16%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Nijmegen : 33% (▼ 3%)
20% (▲ 3%)
Excelsior : 47% (-)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.9 - 1.5 (Model B.4)
Nijmegen : 46% (▲ 10%)
23% (▲ 6%)
Excelsior : 31% (▼ 16%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 52.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.6 - 4.3 - 5.1
Nijmegen : 59% (▲ 23%)
22% (▲ 5%)
Excelsior : 18% (▼ 29%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 1 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 100%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.6 (59%) Trend: 19 game(s)

HOME : 63%
D : 16%
AWAY : 21%


Football

Odds Trend: 15 game(s)

HOME : 53%
D : 27%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 1.6 (59%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 43%
AWAY : 20%


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