Southampton

3 - 1

Swansea

Southampton Home Streak: 14 Games Without Defeat.

Tue, Sep 8, 2026 18:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 86%
D: 14%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.86 - 2.70 - 3.57)
HOMETEAM: 35%
37%
AWAYTEAM: 28%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (30.43)
Intensity: [Fierce] (69.57)

Southampton (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 63% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Swansea (Fact Index 3.57):
Expected Win % is 28%, compared to a 5% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Southampton:
T : 0.400 (0.687 / ▼0.287)
P : 0.400 (0.687 / ▼0.287)

Swansea:
T : 0.600 (0.926 / ▼0.326)
P : 0.600 (0.926 / ▼0.326)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 19 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 63%
32%
AWAY : 5%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 11 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 64%
36%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.2 (Model A.)
Southampton : 45% (▲ 10%)
30% (▼ 7%)
Swansea : 25% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 1.0 (Model B.4)
Southampton : 38% (▲ 3%)
27% (▼ 10%)
Swansea : 35% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.7 - 3.9
Southampton : 50% (▲ 15%)
26% (▼ 11%)
Swansea : 24% (▼ 4%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 8 game(s)

HOME : 49%
D : 13%
AWAY : 38%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 26 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 23%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 56%
D : 17%
AWAY : 27%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 20%
AWAY : 30%


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