Lens

1 - 0

Nantes

Home form is rock solid: Lens has gone 4 matches at home without a loss. Conversely, Nantes road woes intensify with a 3rd straight away loss.

Fri, May 8, 2026 18:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 20%
Away: 20%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.72 - 5.26 - 4.35)
HOMETEAM: 58%
19%
AWAYTEAM: 23%

Lens (Fact Index 1.72): Expected Win % is 58%, compared to a 55% actual win rate for identical index values.

Nantes (Fact Index 4.35): Expected Win % is 23%, compared to a 17% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 55%
28%
AWAY : 17%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 56%
31%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Lens : 66% (▲ 8%)
18% (▼ 1%)
Nantes : 16% (▼ 7%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Lens | 0.645 | 0.690 | ▲ 0.045
T | Nantes | 0.156 | 0.324 | ▲ 0.168
H | Lens | 0.867 | 0.813 | ▼ 0.054
A | Nantes | 0.125 | 0.266 | ▲ 0.141
P | Lens | 0.333 | 0.526 | ▲ 0.193
P | Nantes | 0.167 | 0.441 | ▲ 0.274
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Average Odds : 1.5 - 4.9 - 6.2
Lens : 65% (▲ 7%)
20% (▲ 1%)
Nantes : 15% (▼ 8%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 74%
D : 13%
AWAY : 13%

Hometeam = 1.5 Trend:

HOME : 60%
D : 20%
AWAY : 20%

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