Atletico MG

2 - 1

Athletico PR

Atletico MG Proves Impossible to Beat on Their Own Turf. Conversely, Athletico PR Away Woes Continue: 3rd Straight Loss.

Sun, Apr 5, 2026 20:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 56%
D: 11%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.56 - 4.17 - 2.70)
HOMETEAM: 39%
24%
AWAYTEAM: 37%

Weight: [Close] (21.05)
Intensity: [Fierce] (78.95)

Atletico MG (Fact Index 2.56):
Expected Win % is 39%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Athletico PR (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Atletico MG:
T : 0.333 (0.528 / ▼0.195)
H : 0.500 (0.608 / ▼0.108)
P : 0.500 (0.608 / ▼0.108)

Athletico PR:
T : 0.556 (0.578 / ▼0.022)
A : 0.250 (0.326 / ▼0.076)
P : 0.500 (0.565 / ▼0.065)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 43%
27%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 24 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 54%
25%
Underdog : 21%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Atletico MG : 44% (▲ 5%)
25% (▲ 1%)
Athletico PR : 31% (▼ 6%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Atletico MG : 46% (▲ 7%)
23% (▼ 1%)
Athletico PR : 31% (▼ 6%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 66.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.4 - 4.2
Atletico MG : 49% (▲ 10%)
28% (▲ 4%)
Athletico PR : 23% (▼ 14%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 12 game(s)

HOME : 17%
D : 41%
AWAY : 42%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (49%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 27%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 37%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (49%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 63%
D : 27%
AWAY : 10%


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