Lille

3 - 0

Lens

Fortress Lille: 8-match unbeaten streak. Meanwhile, Lens road woes intensify with a 2nd straight away loss.

Sat, Apr 4, 2026 19:05 (UTC)


Facts

Lille :
Matías Fernández 58' (Pen.)
Félix Correia 49'
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson 44'
A: Matías Fernández
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 30%
Away: 20%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.04 - 7.14 - 2.70)
HOMETEAM: 49%
14%
AWAYTEAM: 37%

Lille (Fact Index 2.04): Expected Win % is 49%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

Lens (Fact Index 2.70): Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 20% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 50%
30%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 37%
38%
Underdog : 25%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Lille : 40% (▼ 9%)
17% (▲ 3%)
Lens : 43% (▲ 6%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Lille | 0.519 | 0.568 | ▲ 0.049
T | Lens | 0.704 | 0.742 | ▲ 0.038
H | Lille | 0.538 | 0.614 | ▲ 0.076
A | Lens | 0.538 | 0.635 | ▲ 0.097
P | Lille | 0.667 | 0.711 | ▲ 0.044
P | Lens | 0.500 | 0.760 | ▲ 0.260
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Average Odds : 2.7 - 3.3 - 2.7
Lille : 37% (▼ 12%)
28% (▲ 14%)
Lens : 35% (▼ 2%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 33%
D : 40%
AWAY : 27%

Hometeam 2.7 = 2.7 Awayteam Trend:

HOME : 33%
D : 30%
AWAY : 37%

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