Vitória

2 - 0

Atletico MG

Vitória: 2 Straight Wins Over Atletico MG. Conversely, Atletico MG Road Trip Hell: 5th Straight Away Loss.

Sat, Mar 14, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 40%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.70 - 2.63 - 4.00)
HOMETEAM: 37%
38%
AWAYTEAM: 25%

Weight: [Close] (15.79)
Intensity: [Extreme] (84.21)

Vitória (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 47% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 60% in this event.

Atletico MG (Fact Index 4.00):
Expected Win % is 25%, compared to a 13% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Vitória:
T : 0.250 (0.352 / ▼0.102)
P : 0.250 (0.352 / ▼0.102)

Atletico MG:
T : 0.200 (0.457 / ▼0.257)
P : 0.200 (0.457 / ▼0.257)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 60%
40%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 60%
40%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 47%
40%
AWAY : 13%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 47%
40%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Vitória : 38% (▲ 1%)
29% (▼ 9%)
Atletico MG : 33% (▲ 8%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 1.5 (Model B.4)
Vitória : 43% (▲ 6%)
27% (▼ 11%)
Atletico MG : 30% (▲ 5%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.2 - 2.8
Vitória : 37% (-)
29% (▼ 9%)
Atletico MG : 34% (▲ 9%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 5 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 40%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 33%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 20%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 27%
AWAY : 43%


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