Botafogo RJ

2 - 1

Santos

Defending the Turf: Botafogo RJ Wins 2nd in a Row. Meanwhile, Santos struggling to perform on the road, losing 2 consecutive games.

Thu, Jul 16, 2026 22:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 43%
D: 43%
Away: 14%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.78 - 2.78 - 3.57)
HOMETEAM: 36%
36%
AWAYTEAM: 28%

Weight: [Close] (10.53)
Intensity: [Extreme] (89.47)

Botafogo RJ (Fact Index 2.78):
Expected Win % is 36%, compared to a 63% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 75% in this event.

Santos (Fact Index 3.57):
Expected Win % is 28%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 25% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Botafogo RJ:
T : 0.353 (0.500 / ▼0.147)
H : 0.429 (0.572 / ▼0.143)
A : 0.300 (0.444 / ▼0.144)
P : 0.167 (0.500 / ▼0.333)

Santos:
T : 0.278 (0.465 / ▼0.187)
H : 0.500 (0.572 / ▼0.072)
A : 0.000 (0.362 / ▼0.362)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 4 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 75%
0%
AWAY : 25%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 63%
7%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 60%
13%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Botafogo RJ : 34% (▼ 2%)
35% (▼ 1%)
Santos : 31% (▲ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.7 - 1.8 (Model B.4)
Botafogo RJ : 29% (▼ 7%)
35% (▼ 1%)
Santos : 36% (▲ 8%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.2 - 3.4 - 3.3
Botafogo RJ : 43% (▲ 7%)
28% (▼ 8%)
Santos : 29% (▲ 1%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 4 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (43%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 43%
D : 27%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 23%
AWAY : 23%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (43%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 33%
AWAY : 27%


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