Bahia

1 - 1

Gremio

Another away tie: Gremio settles for a point again.

Sun, May 17, 2026 19:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 43%
D: 14%
Away: 43%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.22 - 3.57 - 3.70)
HOMETEAM: 45%
28%
AWAYTEAM: 27%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (57.89)
Intensity: [Moderate] (42.11)

Bahia (Fact Index 2.22):
Expected Win % is 45%, compared to a 35% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Gremio (Fact Index 3.70):
Expected Win % is 27%, compared to a 42% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Bahia:
T : 0.429 (0.534 / ▼0.105)
H : 0.286 (0.602 / ▼0.316)
P : 0.167 (0.398 / ▼0.231)

Gremio:
T : 0.267 (0.459 / ▼0.192)
A : 0.000 (0.212 / ▼0.212)
P : 0.167 (0.193 / ▼0.026)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
100%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
100%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 26 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 35%
23%
AWAY : 42%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 20 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 45%
25%
Underdog : 30%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Bahia : 59% (▲ 14%)
23% (▼ 5%)
Gremio : 18% (▼ 9%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 0.8 (Model B.4)
Bahia : 43% (▼ 2%)
29% (▲ 1%)
Gremio : 28% (▲ 1%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 81%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.6 - 4.3
Bahia : 52% (▲ 7%)
26% (▼ 2%)
Gremio : 22% (▼ 5%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 6 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 50%
AWAY : 17%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (52%) Trend: 29 game(s)

HOME : 48%
D : 28%
AWAY : 24%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 23%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (52%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 20%
AWAY : 20%


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