Coritiba

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Palmeiras

Palmeiras Extension: Coritiba Slump Reaches 5 Games. Meanwhile, Refusing to Yield: Palmeiras’s 14-match unbeaten run.

Wed, Jul 22, 2026 22:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 0%
D: 0%
Away: 100%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (4.17 - 3.03 - 2.33)
HOMETEAM: 24%
33%
AWAYTEAM: 43%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (31.58)
Intensity: [Fierce] (68.42)

Coritiba (Fact Index 4.17):
Expected Win % is 24%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Palmeiras (Fact Index 2.33):
Expected Win % is 43%, compared to a 44% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 100% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Coritiba:
T : 0.389 (0.500 / ▼0.111)
H : 0.375 (0.572 / ▼0.197)
A : 0.400 (0.457 / ▼0.057)
P : 0.333 (0.408 / ▼0.075)

Palmeiras:
T : 0.667 (0.748 / ▼0.081)
H : 0.778 (0.782 / ▼0.004)
A : 0.556 (0.711 / ▼0.155)
P : 0.500 (0.782 / ▼0.282)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
0%
AWAY : 100%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 16 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 43%
13%
AWAY : 44%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 10 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 40%
20%
Underdog : 40%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Coritiba : 31% (▲ 7%)
29% (▼ 4%)
Palmeiras : 40% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 1.0 (Model B.4)
Coritiba : 46% (▲ 22%)
23% (▼ 10%)
Palmeiras : 31% (▼ 12%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 57.1%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 3.5 - 3.2 - 2.1
Coritiba : 27% (▲ 3%)
30% (▼ 3%)
Palmeiras : 44% (▲ 1%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 1 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 0%
AWAY : 100%

Based on Away team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 14 game(s)

HOME : 36%
D : 21%
AWAY : 43%


Football

Odds Trend: 12 game(s)

HOME : 25%
D : 25%
AWAY : 50%

Based on Away team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 30%
AWAY : 40%


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