Santos

2 - 3

Fluminense

Fluminense Proves Tough to Beat Away from Home.

Sun, Apr 19, 2026 19:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 0%
D: 43%
Away: 57%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.94 - 3.23 - 2.86)
HOMETEAM: 34%
31%
AWAYTEAM: 35%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (47.37)
Intensity: [Moderate] (52.63)

Santos (Fact Index 2.94):
Expected Win % is 34%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 40% in this event.

Fluminense (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 60% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Santos:
T : 0.273 (0.457 / ▼0.184)
H : 0.500 (0.648 / ▼0.148)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

Fluminense:
T : 0.545 (0.604 / ▼0.059)
A : 0.200 (0.500 / ▼0.300)
P : 0.500 (0.565 / ▼0.065)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
0%
AWAY : 60%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
0%
Underdog : 100%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 43%
20%
AWAY : 37%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 53%
20%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Santos : 36% (▲ 2%)
28% (▼ 3%)
Fluminense : 36% (▲ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.0 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Santos : 33% (▼ 1%)
28% (▼ 3%)
Fluminense : 39% (▲ 4%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.2 - 2.8
Santos : 36% (▲ 2%)
30% (▼ 1%)
Fluminense : 34% (▼ 1%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 5 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 20%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (36%) Trend: 23 game(s)

HOME : 35%
D : 35%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 13%
D : 37%
AWAY : 50%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (36%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 37%
AWAY : 33%


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