Chapecoense

3 - 3

Coritiba

Wed, Feb 11, 2026 22:00 (UTC)


FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 0%
D: 100%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.03 - 2.94 - 3.03)
HOMETEAM: 33%
34%
AWAYTEAM: 33%

Due to a lack of data in the early stages of the competition, default index values may be applied. Please refer to each team's number of games played.

Chapecoense (Fact Index 3.03):
Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 40% in this event.

Coritiba (Fact Index 3.03):
Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 20% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

No Home team data available.

No Away team data available.


Competition

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
40%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 43%
40%
Underdog : 17%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 43%
17%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 60%
17%
Underdog : 23%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 2.5 (Model A.)
Chapecoense : 35% (▲ 2%)
30% (▼ 4%)
Coritiba : 35% (▲ 2%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.7 - 1.2 (Model B.1)
Chapecoense : 69% (▲ 36%)
15% (▼ 19%)
Coritiba : 16% (▼ 17%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.1 / Data Completion Rate : %

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.4 - 3.0 - 3.2
Chapecoense : 40% (▲ 7%)
31% (▼ 3%)
Coritiba : 29% (▼ 4%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 8 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 38%
AWAY : 25%

Based on Home team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 53%
D : 20%
AWAY : 27%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 20%
AWAY : 30%

Based on Home team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 33%
AWAY : 13%


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