Arsenal

2 - 1

Chelsea

Fortress Arsenal: 6-match unbeaten streak.

Sun, Mar 1, 2026 16:30 (UTC)


Facts

Arsenal :
Jurriën Timber 66'
William Saliba 21'

Chelsea :
Pedro Neto 70' RED
Piero Hincapié 45' +2 (OG)

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 70%
D: 30%
Away: 0%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.17 - 3.33 - 4.17)
HOMETEAM: 46%
30%
AWAYTEAM: 24%

Arsenal (Fact Index 2.17): Expected Win % is 46%, compared to a 53% actual win rate for identical index values.

Chelsea (Fact Index 4.17): Expected Win % is 24%, compared to a 14% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 53%
33%
AWAY : 14%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 67%
33%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Arsenal : 48% (▲ 2%)
25% (▼ 5%)
Chelsea : 27% (▲ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 1.3 (Model B.3)
Arsenal : 48% (▲ 2%)
25% (▼ 5%)
Chelsea : 27% (▲ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.3 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.6 - 4.1 - 5.4
Arsenal : 59% (▲ 13%)
23% (▼ 7%)
Chelsea : 18% (▼ 6%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 70%
D : 13%
AWAY : 17%

Hometeam = 1.6 Trend:

HOME : 74%
D : 13%
AWAY : 13%

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