Manchester City

2 - 1

Arsenal

Home form is rock solid: Manchester City has gone 15 matches at home without a loss. Meanwhile, Arsenal is battling through a 2-match win drought.

Sun, Apr 19, 2026 15:30 (UTC)


Facts

Manchester City :
Erling Haaland 65'
Rayan Cherki 16'
Arsenal :
Kai Havertz 18'
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 40%
Away: 20%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.78 - 3.23 - 3.03)
HOMETEAM: 36%
31%
AWAYTEAM: 33%

Manchester City (Fact Index 2.78): Expected Win % is 36%, compared to a 47% actual win rate for identical index values.

Arsenal (Fact Index 3.03): Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 47%
23%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 54%
23%
Underdog : 23%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Manchester City : 37% (▲ 1%)
26% (▼ 5%)
Arsenal : 37% (▲ 4%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Manchester City | 0.613 | 0.742 | ▲ 0.129
T | Arsenal | 0.656 | 0.774 | ▲ 0.118
H | Manchester City | 0.733 | 0.824 | ▲ 0.091
A | Arsenal | 0.563 | 0.711 | ▲ 0.148
P | Manchester City | 0.667 | 0.807 | ▲ 0.140
P | Arsenal | 0.667 | 0.711 | ▲ 0.044
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.7 - 4.4
Manchester City : 52% (▲ 16%)
26% (▼ 5%)
Arsenal : 22% (▼ 11%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 46%
D : 27%
AWAY : 27%

Hometeam = 1.8 Trend:

HOME : 33%
D : 23%
AWAY : 44%

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