Santos

3 - 1

Vitória

Vitória FC road woes intensify with a 2nd straight away loss.

Sat, May 30, 2026 23:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 67%
D: 0%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.86 - 3.13 - 3.03)
HOMETEAM: 35%
32%
AWAYTEAM: 33%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (36.84)
Intensity: [Fierce] (63.16)

Santos (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 80% in this event.

Vitória (Fact Index 3.03):
Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 20% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Santos:
T : 0.235 (0.436 / ▼0.201)
H : 0.444 (0.528 / ▼0.084)
P : 0.167 (0.408 / ▼0.241)

Vitória:
T : 0.375 (0.469 / ▼0.094)
A : 0.000 (0.183 / ▼0.183)
P : 0.333 (0.538 / ▼0.205)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 80%
0%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 80%
0%
Underdog : 20%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
30%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
33%
Underdog : 17%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Santos : 36% (▲ 1%)
29% (▼ 3%)
Vitória : 35% (▲ 2%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 1.5 (Model B.4)
Santos : 32% (▼ 3%)
25% (▼ 7%)
Vitória : 43% (▲ 10%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.5 - 4.6
Santos : 53% (▲ 18%)
27% (▼ 5%)
Vitória : 20% (▼ 13%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 14 game(s)

HOME : 72%
D : 21%
AWAY : 7%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (53%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 23%
AWAY : 17%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 33%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (53%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 30%
AWAY : 20%


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