Mirassol

1 - 2

Bahia

Mirassol Rut Deepens: 6 Games Without Win.

Sat, Apr 11, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 33%
D: 33%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (4.55 - 4.00 - 1.89)
HOMETEAM: 22%
25%
AWAYTEAM: 53%

Weight: [Distant] (84.21)
Intensity: [One-Sided] (15.79)

Mirassol (Fact Index 4.55):
Expected Win % is 22%, compared to a 42% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Bahia (Fact Index 1.89):
Expected Win % is 53%, compared to a 29% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Mirassol:
T : 0.111 (0.392 / ▼0.281)
H : 0.200 (0.450 / ▼0.250)
P : 0.000 (0.258 / ▼0.258)

Bahia:
T : 0.556 (0.617 / ▼0.061)
A : 0.750 (0.500 / ▲0.250)
P : 0.500 (0.581 / ▼0.081)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
50%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
50%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 14 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 42%
29%
AWAY : 29%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 10 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 30%
20%
Underdog : 50%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 2.5 (Model A.)
Mirassol : 37% (▲ 15%)
21% (▼ 4%)
Bahia : 42% (▼ 11%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.4 - 1.4 (Model B.4)
Mirassol : 32% (▲ 10%)
21% (▼ 4%)
Bahia : 47% (▼ 6%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.4 - 3.3 - 3.0
Mirassol : 40% (▲ 18%)
28% (▲ 3%)
Bahia : 32% (▼ 21%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 2 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 0%
AWAY : 100%

Based on Home team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 53%
D : 20%
AWAY : 27%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 33%
AWAY : 23%

Based on Home team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 33%
AWAY : 13%


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