Ajax

1 - 3

PSV

Invincible: PSV Eindhoven go 11 matches without defeat.

Sat, Sep 5, 2026 18:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 20%
D: 40%
Away: 40%

Home team Side

Away team Side

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.70 - 2.63 - 4.00)
HOMETEAM: 37%
38%
AWAYTEAM: 25%

Weight: [Close] (11.76)
Intensity: [Extreme] (88.24)

Ajax (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 46% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 67% in this event.

PSV (Fact Index 4.00):
Expected Win % is 25%, compared to a 17% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 33% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

No Home team data available.

PSV:
T : 0.750 (0.807 / ▼0.057)
P : 0.750 (0.807 / ▼0.057)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 67%
0%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 46%
37%
AWAY : 17%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
37%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 2.1 (Model A.)
Ajax : 35% (▼ 2%)
30% (▼ 8%)
PSV : 35% (▲ 10%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.2 - 1.8 (Model B.4)
Ajax : 39% (▲ 2%)
34% (▼ 4%)
PSV : 27% (▲ 2%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.9 - 2.4
Ajax : 36% (▼ 1%)
24% (▼ 14%)
PSV : 40% (▲ 15%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 1 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 0%
AWAY : 100%

Based on Away team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 14 game(s)

HOME : 42%
D : 29%
AWAY : 29%


Football

Odds Trend: 9 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 0%
AWAY : 67%

Based on Away team = 2.4 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 20%
AWAY : 50%


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