PSG

5 - 0

Marseille

Sun, Feb 8, 2026 19:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 70%
D: 10%
Away: 20%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.59 - 9.09 - 3.70)
HOMETEAM: 63%
11%
AWAYTEAM: 27%

PSG (Fact Index 1.59): Expected Win % is 63%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

Marseille (Fact Index 3.70): Expected Win % is 27%, compared to a 25% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 50%
25%
AWAY : 25%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 67%
0%
Underdog : 33%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.0 (Model A.)
PSG : 65% (▲ 2%)
17% (▲ 6%)
Marseille : 19% (▼ 8%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.9 - 0.9 (Model B.1)
PSG : 82% (▲ 19%)
9% (▼ 2%)
Marseille : 9% (▼ 18%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: v B.1 / %)


Average Odds : 1.4 - 5.2 - 6.8
PSG : 67% (▲ 4%)
18% (▲ 7%)
Marseille : 14% (▼ 13%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 78%
D : 22%
AWAY : 0%

Hometeam = 1.4 Trend:

HOME : 47%
D : 23%
AWAY : 30%

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