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Bayern Munich

1 - 1

Agg: 5-6

PSG

Home Fortress Bayern Munich: 7-Game Unbeaten Run at Home. However, 9-Match Unbeaten Streak for PSG.

Wed, May 6, 2026 19:00 (UTC)


Facts

Bayern Munich :
Harry Kane 90' +4
PSG :
Ousmane Dembélé 3'
FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 56%
D: 11%
Away: 33%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.08 - 14.29 - 2.22)
HOMETEAM: 48%
7%
AWAYTEAM: 45%

Bayern Munich (Fact Index 2.08): Expected Win % is 48%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

PSG (Fact Index 2.22): Expected Win % is 45%, compared to a 0% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 50%
50%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 50%
50%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 3.5 (Model A.)
Bayern Munich : 37% (▼ 11%)
10% (▲ 3%)
PSG : 53% (▲ 8%)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Bayern Munich | 0.846 | 0.737 | ▼ 0.109
T | PSG | 0.667 | 0.717 | ▲ 0.050
H | Bayern Munich | 1.000 | 0.827 | ▼ 0.173
A | PSG | 0.714 | 0.773 | ▲ 0.059
P | Bayern Munich | 0.833 | 0.687 | ▼ 0.146
P | PSG | 0.833 | 0.755 | ▼ 0.078
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 2.4 (Model B.4)
Bayern Munich : 32% (▼ 16%)
19% (▲ 12%)
PSG : 49% (▲ 4%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 90.5%)


Average Odds : 1.7 - 5.2 - 3.9
Bayern Munich : 58% (▲ 10%)
18% (▲ 11%)
PSG : 24% (▼ 21%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 0%
D : 100%
AWAY : 0%

Hometeam = 1.7 Trend:

HOME : 43%
D : 20%
AWAY : 37%

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