Necaxa

0 - 1

Puebla

Fortress Crumbles: Necaxa Lose 3rd Straight at Home.

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 01:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 44%
D: 33%
Away: 22%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.33 - 5.00 - 2.70)
HOMETEAM: 43%
20%
AWAYTEAM: 37%

Weight: [Close] (23.53)
Intensity: [Fierce] (76.47)

Necaxa (Fact Index 2.33):
Expected Win % is 43%, compared to a 54% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Puebla (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 25% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 100% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Necaxa:
T : 0.286 (0.435 / ▼0.149)
H : 0.500 (0.500 / -)
P : 0.167 (0.357 / ▼0.190)

Puebla:
T : 0.500 (0.500 / -)
A : 0.500 (0.441 / ▲0.059)
P : 0.500 (0.500 / -)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
0%
AWAY : 100%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
0%
Underdog : 100%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 24 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 54%
21%
AWAY : 25%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 12 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 66%
17%
Underdog : 17%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.7 - 1.1 (Model A.)
Necaxa : 46% (▲ 3%)
23% (▲ 3%)
Puebla : 31% (▼ 6%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.1 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Necaxa : 37% (▼ 6%)
28% (▲ 8%)
Puebla : 35% (▼ 2%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 81%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.0 - 3.6 - 3.5
Necaxa : 47% (▲ 4%)
26% (▲ 6%)
Puebla : 27% (▼ 10%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 10 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 40%
AWAY : 30%

Based on Home team = 2.0 (47%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 43%
D : 30%
AWAY : 27%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 30%
AWAY : 33%

Based on Home team = 2.0 (47%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 40%
AWAY : 30%


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