Gremio

2 - 0

Vitória

Gremio Home Streak: 4 Games Without Defeat.

Thu, Mar 19, 2026 22:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 40%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.56 - 2.86 - 3.85)
HOMETEAM: 39%
35%
AWAYTEAM: 26%

Weight: [Close] (15.79)
Intensity: [Extreme] (84.21)

Gremio (Fact Index 2.56):
Expected Win % is 39%, compared to a 60% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Vitória (Fact Index 3.85):
Expected Win % is 26%, compared to a 20% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Gremio:
T : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

Vitória:
T : 0.400 (0.457 / ▼0.057)
P : 0.400 (0.457 / ▼0.057)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 60%
20%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 26 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 62%
19%
Underdog : 19%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 3.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Gremio : 55% (▲ 16%)
25% (▼ 10%)
Vitória : 20% (▼ 6%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.7 - 1.3 (Model B.4)
Gremio : 39% (-)
32% (▼ 3%)
Vitória : 29% (▲ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 81%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.7 - 3.7 - 5.1
Gremio : 57% (▲ 18%)
25% (▼ 10%)
Vitória : 18% (▼ 8%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 12 game(s)

HOME : 67%
D : 33%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.7 (57%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 66%
D : 27%
AWAY : 7%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 57%
D : 30%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.7 (57%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 56%
D : 17%
AWAY : 27%


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