Coritiba

1 - 1

Fluminense

Coritiba Home Guardians: 3-Match Unbeaten Streak. Meanwhile, Tactical Masterclass: Fluminense reach 3 without dropping all points.

Sat, Apr 4, 2026 23:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 20%
Away: 40%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.70 - 4.76 - 2.38)
HOMETEAM: 37%
21%
AWAYTEAM: 42%

Weight: [Close] (26.32)
Intensity: [Fierce] (73.68)

Coritiba (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 26% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Fluminense (Fact Index 2.38):
Expected Win % is 42%, compared to a 48% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Coritiba:
T : 0.444 (0.534 / ▼0.090)
H : 0.250 (0.371 / ▼0.121)
P : 0.500 (0.572 / ▼0.072)

Fluminense:
T : 0.667 (0.648 / ▲0.019)
A : 0.250 (0.500 / ▼0.250)
P : 0.667 (0.629 / ▲0.038)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
50%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
50%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 27 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 26%
26%
AWAY : 48%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 24 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 46%
29%
Underdog : 25%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Coritiba : 43% (▲ 6%)
23% (▲ 2%)
Fluminense : 34% (▼ 8%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 1.1 (Model B.4)
Coritiba : 46% (▲ 9%)
23% (▲ 2%)
Fluminense : 31% (▼ 11%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 57.1%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 3.2 - 3.0 - 2.3
Coritiba : 29% (▼ 8%)
31% (▲ 10%)
Fluminense : 40% (▼ 2%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 5 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 20%
AWAY : 40%

Based on Away team = 2.3 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 17%
D : 53%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 23%
AWAY : 44%

Based on Away team = 2.3 (40%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 30%
AWAY : 37%


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