Botafogo RJ

3 - 2

Mirassol

Mirassol Reeling: 4th Consecutive Loss.

Wed, Apr 1, 2026 22:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 33%
D: 67%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.94 - 3.45 - 2.70)
HOMETEAM: 34%
29%
AWAYTEAM: 37%

Weight: [Adjacent] (0.00)
Intensity: [Extreme] (100.00)

Botafogo RJ (Fact Index 2.94):
Expected Win % is 34%, compared to a 36% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 67% in this event.

Mirassol (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Botafogo RJ:
T : 0.286 (0.381 / ▼0.095)
P : 0.167 (0.255 / ▼0.088)

Mirassol:
T : 0.143 (0.428 / ▼0.285)
P : 0.000 (0.371 / ▼0.371)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 67%
33%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 67%
33%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 36%
27%
AWAY : 37%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 46%
27%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Botafogo RJ : 41% (▲ 7%)
25% (▼ 4%)
Mirassol : 34% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.4 - 1.5 (Model B.4)
Botafogo RJ : 35% (▲ 1%)
23% (▼ 6%)
Mirassol : 42% (▲ 5%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.2 - 3.4 - 3.2
Botafogo RJ : 42% (▲ 8%)
28% (▼ 1%)
Mirassol : 30% (▼ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 3 game(s)

HOME : 67%
D : 33%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (42%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 64%
D : 13%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 43%
D : 20%
AWAY : 37%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (42%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 46%
D : 27%
AWAY : 27%


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