Santos

1 - 0

Atletico MG

Santos turns their stadium into a fortress with 2 straight home wins.

Sat, Apr 11, 2026 23:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 29%
D: 43%
Away: 29%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.70 - 3.70 - 2.78)
HOMETEAM: 37%
27%
AWAYTEAM: 36%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (36.84)
Intensity: [Fierce] (63.16)

Santos (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 50% in this event.

Atletico MG (Fact Index 2.78):
Expected Win % is 36%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 25% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Santos:
T : 0.200 (0.433 / ▼0.233)
H : 0.400 (0.608 / ▼0.208)
P : 0.167 (0.457 / ▼0.290)

Atletico MG:
T : 0.400 (0.550 / ▼0.150)
A : 0.200 (0.441 / ▼0.241)
P : 0.667 (0.711 / ▼0.044)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 4 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 50%
25%
AWAY : 25%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 4 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 50%
25%
Underdog : 25%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 33%
37%
AWAY : 30%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 37%
40%
Underdog : 23%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Santos : 38% (▲ 1%)
24% (▼ 3%)
Atletico MG : 38% (▲ 2%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.1 - 0.9 (Model B.4)
Santos : 40% (▲ 3%)
31% (▲ 4%)
Atletico MG : 29% (▼ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.3 - 3.2 - 3.3
Santos : 41% (▲ 4%)
30% (▲ 3%)
Atletico MG : 29% (▼ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 11 game(s)

HOME : 82%
D : 0%
AWAY : 18%

Based on Home team = 2.3 (41%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 13%
AWAY : 33%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 23%
AWAY : 27%

Based on Home team = 2.3 (41%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 23%
AWAY : 27%


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