Sao Paulo

2 - 0

Chapecoense

Sao Paulo remains rock solid in their last 5 home fixtures.

Thu, Mar 12, 2026 23:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 100%
D: 0%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.86 - 2.78 - 3.45)
HOMETEAM: 35%
36%
AWAYTEAM: 29%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (42.11)
Intensity: [Moderate] (57.89)

Sao Paulo (Fact Index 2.86):
Expected Win % is 35%, compared to a 57% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Chapecoense (Fact Index 3.45):
Expected Win % is 29%, compared to a 20% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

No Home team data available.

No Away team data available.


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 57%
23%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 56%
27%
Underdog : 17%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Sao Paulo : 40% (▲ 5%)
30% (▼ 6%)
Chapecoense : 30% (▲ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.7 - 1.4 (Model B.4)
Sao Paulo : 46% (▲ 11%)
23% (▼ 13%)
Chapecoense : 31% (▲ 2%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 33.3%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.4 - 4.4 - 7.5
Sao Paulo : 66% (▲ 31%)
21% (▼ 15%)
Chapecoense : 13% (▼ 16%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 8 game(s)

HOME : 74%
D : 13%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.4 (66%) Trend: 22 game(s)

HOME : 72%
D : 23%
AWAY : 5%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 53%
D : 30%
AWAY : 17%

Based on Home team = 1.4 (66%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 63%
D : 17%
AWAY : 20%


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