Bahia

2 - 0

Bragantino

Hard to Beat: Bahia mark 6 matches since last defeat. Meanwhile, Bragantino Rut Deepens: 2 Games Without Win.

Wed, Mar 18, 2026 22:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 71%
D: 0%
Away: 29%

Home team Side

Away team Side

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.04 - 3.70 - 4.17)
HOMETEAM: 49%
27%
AWAYTEAM: 24%

Weight: [Close] (15.79)
Intensity: [Extreme] (84.21)

Bahia (Fact Index 2.04):
Expected Win % is 49%, compared to a 53% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Bragantino (Fact Index 4.17):
Expected Win % is 24%, compared to a 29% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Bahia:
T : 0.600 (0.711 / ▼0.111)
P : 0.600 (0.711 / ▼0.111)

Bragantino:
T : 0.333 (0.441 / ▼0.108)
P : 0.333 (0.441 / ▼0.108)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 17 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 53%
18%
AWAY : 29%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 13 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 62%
15%
Underdog : 23%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Bahia : 56% (▲ 7%)
23% (▼ 4%)
Bragantino : 21% (▼ 3%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.6 - 0.6 (Model B.4)
Bahia : 64% (▲ 15%)
32% (▲ 5%)
Bragantino : 4% (▼ 20%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 81%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.9 - 3.6 - 3.9
Bahia : 50% (▲ 1%)
26% (▼ 1%)
Bragantino : 24% (-)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 4 game(s)

HOME : 75%
D : 25%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 17%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 20%
AWAY : 30%

Based on Home team = 1.9 (50%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 40%
AWAY : 13%


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