Toluca

4 - 0

Juarez

Hard to Beat: Toluca mark 4 matches since last defeat. Conversely, Juarez Form has dropped with a 6-match slump.

Mon, Aug 31, 2026 00:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 30%
Away: 10%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.47 - 5.26 - 7.69)
HOMETEAM: 68%
19%
AWAYTEAM: 13%

Weight: [Distant] (82.35)
Intensity: [One-Sided] (17.65)

Toluca (Fact Index 1.47):
Expected Win % is 68%, compared to a 73% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Juarez (Fact Index 7.69):
Expected Win % is 13%, compared to a 9% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Toluca:
T : 0.600 (0.711 / ▼0.111)
P : 0.600 (0.711 / ▼0.111)

Juarez:
T : 0.000 (0.110 / ▼0.110)
P : 0.000 (0.110 / ▼0.110)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 11 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 73%
18%
AWAY : 9%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 10 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 80%
20%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.1 - 1.1 (Model A.)
Toluca : 63% (▼ 5%)
20% (▲ 1%)
Juarez : 17% (▲ 4%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.9 - 0.5 (Model B.4)
Toluca : 70% (▲ 2%)
20% (▲ 1%)
Juarez : 10% (▼ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.3 - 5.8 - 9.1
Toluca : 74% (▲ 6%)
16% (▼ 3%)
Juarez : 10% (▼ 3%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 3 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 1.3 (74%) Trend: 6 game(s)

HOME : 100%
D : 0%
AWAY : 0%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 84%
D : 13%
AWAY : 3%

Based on Home team = 1.3 (74%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 87%
D : 10%
AWAY : 3%


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