Vitória

2 - 0

Sao Paulo

Vitória FC Proves Impossible to Beat on Their Own Turf.

Sat, Apr 11, 2026 19:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 0%
Away: 60%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.13 - 5.88 - 1.96)
HOMETEAM: 32%
17%
AWAYTEAM: 51%

Weight: [Distant] (63.16)
Intensity: [Tilted] (36.84)

Vitória (Fact Index 3.13):
Expected Win % is 32%, compared to a 23% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 50% in this event.

Sao Paulo (Fact Index 1.96):
Expected Win % is 51%, compared to a 38% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Vitória:
T : 0.333 (0.360 / ▼0.027)
H : 0.750 (0.807 / ▼0.057)
P : 0.333 (0.392 / ▼0.059)

Sao Paulo:
T : 0.600 (0.729 / ▼0.129)
A : 0.400 (0.572 / ▼0.172)
P : 0.500 (0.682 / ▼0.182)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 50%
50%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
50%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 13 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 23%
39%
AWAY : 38%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 9 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 45%
33%
Underdog : 22%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 3.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Vitória : 48% (▲ 16%)
16% (▼ 1%)
Sao Paulo : 36% (▼ 15%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.7 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Vitória : 23% (▼ 9%)
27% (▲ 10%)
Sao Paulo : 50% (▼ 1%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 3.0 - 3.1 - 2.5
Vitória : 31% (▼ 1%)
30% (▲ 13%)
Sao Paulo : 39% (▼ 12%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 5 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 40%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Away team = 2.5 (39%) Trend: 21 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 24%
AWAY : 43%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 23%
D : 33%
AWAY : 44%

Based on Away team = 2.5 (39%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 27%
D : 30%
AWAY : 43%


User's choice

Voting has closed.

You're the first!

© 2020 - 2026 | Waveflow SportsLab | Terms of Use · Privacy Policy | All Rights Reserved.

©2026 Waveflow SportsLab
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy