Chapecoense

1 - 1

Gremio

Chapecoense Home Guardians: 3-Match Unbeaten Streak. Meanwhile, Points Piling Up: Gremio reach 3 games unbeaten.

Mon, Mar 16, 2026 23:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 0%
D: 100%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.03 - 2.94 - 3.03)
HOMETEAM: 33%
34%
AWAYTEAM: 33%

Due to a lack of data in the early stages of the competition, default index values may be applied. Please refer to each team's number of games played.

Weight: [Gap Exists] (31.58)
Intensity: [Fierce] (68.42)

Chapecoense (Fact Index 3.03):
Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 40% in this event.

Gremio (Fact Index 3.03):
Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 20% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Chapecoense:
T : 0.250 (0.500 / ▼0.250)
P : 0.250 (0.500 / ▼0.250)

Gremio:
T : 0.400 (0.500 / ▼0.100)
P : 0.400 (0.500 / ▼0.100)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
40%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 43%
40%
Underdog : 17%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 43%
17%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 60%
17%
Underdog : 23%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 3.0 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Chapecoense : 39% (▲ 6%)
29% (▼ 5%)
Gremio : 32% (▼ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.1 - 2.1 (Model B.4)
Chapecoense : 46% (▲ 13%)
23% (▼ 11%)
Gremio : 31% (▼ 2%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 42.9%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.9 - 3.3 - 2.4
Chapecoense : 33% (-)
29% (▼ 5%)
Gremio : 38% (▲ 5%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 8 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 25%
AWAY : 25%

Based on Away team = 2.4 (38%) Trend: 26 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 27%
AWAY : 23%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 40%
AWAY : 27%

Based on Away team = 2.4 (38%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 30%
AWAY : 37%


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