Marseille

3 - 2

Lyon

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 90' +1, 81'
Igor Paixão 52'

0-1, 3-1

Rémi Himbert 76'
Corentin Tolisso 3'

Home Fortress Marseille: 3-Game Unbeaten Run at Home. Conversely, Lyon Rut Deepens: 2 Games Without Win.

Sun, Mar 1, 2026 19:45 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 60%
D: 0%
Away: 40%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.27 - 6.67 - 2.44)
HOMETEAM: 44%
15%
AWAYTEAM: 41%

Marseille (Fact Index 2.27): Expected Win % is 44%, compared to a 47% actual win rate for identical index values.

Lyon (Fact Index 2.44): Expected Win % is 41%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 47%
20%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 60%
30%
Underdog : 10%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Marseille : 40% (▼ 4%)
20% (▲ 5%)
Lyon : 40% (▼ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 2.0 (Model B.3)
Marseille : 34% (▼ 10%)
18% (▲ 3%)
Lyon : 48% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: v B.3 / 76.2)


Average Odds : 2.0 - 3.8 - 3.6
Marseille : 49% (▲ 5%)
25% (▲ 10%)
Lyon : 26% (▼ 15%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 57%
D : 30%
AWAY : 13%

Hometeam = 2.0 Trend:

HOME : 64%
D : 13%
AWAY : 23%

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