Athletico PR

2 - 0

Chapecoense

Athletico PR turns their stadium into a fortress with 4 straight home wins. Meanwhile, Chapecoense Road Trip Hell: 3rd Straight Away Loss.

Sun, Apr 12, 2026 14:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 100%
D: 0%
Away: 0%

Home team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.00 - 3.85 - 4.17)
HOMETEAM: 50%
26%
AWAYTEAM: 24%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (57.89)
Intensity: [Moderate] (42.11)

Athletico PR (Fact Index 2.00):
Expected Win % is 50%, compared to a 68% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Chapecoense (Fact Index 4.17):
Expected Win % is 24%, compared to a 11% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Athletico PR:
T : 0.500 (0.546 / ▼0.046)
H : 0.800 (0.767 / ▲0.033)
P : 0.500 (0.531 / ▼0.031)

Chapecoense:
T : 0.111 (0.352 / ▼0.241)
P : 0.000 (0.110 / ▼0.110)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 19 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 68%
21%
AWAY : 11%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 12 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 84%
8%
Underdog : 8%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Athletico PR : 62% (▲ 12%)
22% (▼ 4%)
Chapecoense : 16% (▼ 8%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 1.0 (Model B.4)
Athletico PR : 46% (▼ 4%)
23% (▼ 3%)
Chapecoense : 31% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 57.1%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.6 - 3.9 - 5.8
Athletico PR : 60% (▲ 10%)
24% (▼ 2%)
Chapecoense : 16% (▼ 8%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 14 game(s)

HOME : 64%
D : 7%
AWAY : 29%

Based on Home team = 1.6 (60%) Trend: 27 game(s)

HOME : 66%
D : 15%
AWAY : 19%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 70%
D : 17%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 1.6 (60%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 63%
D : 20%
AWAY : 17%


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