Burnley

vs

Aston Villa

Burnley Form has dropped with a 5-match slump. Conversely, Aston Villa Form has dropped with a 2-match slump.

Sun, May 10, 2026 13:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 14%
D: 29%
Away: 57%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.85 - 4.00 - 2.04)
HOMETEAM: 26%
25%
AWAYTEAM: 49%

Burnley (Fact Index 3.85): Expected Win % is 26%, compared to a 25% actual win rate for identical index values.

Aston Villa (Fact Index 2.04): Expected Win % is 49%, compared to a 56% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 25%
19%
AWAY : 56%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 73%
18%
Underdog : 9%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 2.0 (Model A.)
Burnley : 28% (▲ 2%)
23% (▼ 2%)
Aston Villa : 49% (-)

|Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
T | Burnley | 0.114 | 0.285 | ▲ 0.171
T | Aston Villa | 0.486 | 0.528 | ▲ 0.042
H | Burnley | 0.118 | 0.328 | ▲ 0.210
A | Aston Villa | 0.353 | 0.441 | ▲ 0.088
P | Burnley | 0.000 | 0.129 | ▲ 0.129
P | Aston Villa | 0.333 | 0.466 | ▲ 0.133
T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Average Odds : 5.3 - 4.3 - 1.6
Burnley : 18% (▼ 8%)
22% (▼ 3%)
Aston Villa : 60% (▲ 11%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 13%
D : 23%
AWAY : 64%

Awayteam = 1.6 Trend:

HOME : 17%
D : 17%
AWAY : 66%

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