Nagasaki

2 - 2

Gamba Osaka

No Split: Nagasaki and Gamba Osaka Tie for the 2nd Time. Conversely, Gamba Osaka recorded 2 consecutive draws.

Wed, Sep 2, 2026 10:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 0%
D: 67%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.45 - 3.33 - 2.44)
HOMETEAM: 29%
30%
AWAYTEAM: 41%

Weight: [Close] (21.05)
Intensity: [Fierce] (78.95)

Nagasaki (Fact Index 3.45):
Expected Win % is 29%, compared to a 30% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Gamba Osaka (Fact Index 2.44):
Expected Win % is 41%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Nagasaki:
T : 0.250 (0.258 / ▼0.008)
P : 0.250 (0.258 / ▼0.008)

Gamba Osaka:
T : 0.250 (0.450 / ▼0.200)
P : 0.250 (0.450 / ▼0.200)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
100%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
100%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 30%
20%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 47%
20%
Underdog : 33%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 1.4 (Model A.)
Nagasaki : 32% (▲ 3%)
28% (▼ 2%)
Gamba Osaka : 40% (▼ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.1 - 1.4 (Model B.4)
Nagasaki : 46% (▲ 17%)
23% (▼ 7%)
Gamba Osaka : 31% (▼ 10%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 57.1%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 3.4 - 3.5 - 2.1
Nagasaki : 28% (▼ 1%)
27% (▼ 3%)
Gamba Osaka : 45% (▲ 4%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 3 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 33%
AWAY : 67%

Based on Away team = 2.1 (45%) Trend: 19 game(s)

HOME : 16%
D : 47%
AWAY : 37%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 27%
D : 30%
AWAY : 43%

Based on Away team = 2.1 (45%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 30%
AWAY : 23%


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