PSG

1 - 3

Monaco

Hard to Beat: Monaco mark 7 matches since last defeat.

Fri, Mar 6, 2026 19:45 (UTC)


Facts

Score Line :
0-1, 1-2
PSG :
Bradley Barcola 71'

Monaco :
Folarin Balogun 73'
Aleksandr Golovin 55'
Maghnes Akliouche 27'

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 20%
Away: 30%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

Neutral

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.75 - 5.88 - 3.85)
HOMETEAM: 57%
17%
AWAYTEAM: 26%

PSG (Fact Index 1.75): Expected Win % is 57%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.

Monaco (Fact Index 3.85): Expected Win % is 26%, compared to a 60% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 40%
0%
AWAY : 60%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 50%
0%
Underdog : 50%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
PSG : 62% (▲ 5%)
17% (-)
Monaco : 21% (▼ 5%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.3 (Model B.3)
PSG : 50% (▼ 7%)
21% (▲ 4%)
Monaco : 29% (▲ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: v B.3 / 100%)


Average Odds : 1.4 - 5.9 - 7.4
PSG : 71% (▲ 14%)
16% (▼ 1%)
Monaco : 13% (▼ 13%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 75%
D : 0%
AWAY : 25%

Hometeam = 1.4 Trend:

HOME : 47%
D : 23%
AWAY : 30%

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