Gremio

1 - 1

Fluminense

Fluminense Tie Loop: 3rd Straight Draw.

Sun, Jul 26, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 40%
D: 20%
Away: 40%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.33 - 3.45 - 2.44)
HOMETEAM: 30%
29%
AWAYTEAM: 41%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (57.89)
Intensity: [Moderate] (42.11)

Gremio (Fact Index 3.33):
Expected Win % is 30%, compared to a 20% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Fluminense (Fact Index 2.44):
Expected Win % is 41%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 50% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Gremio:
T : 0.263 (0.444 / ▼0.181)
H : 0.556 (0.599 / ▼0.043)
A : 0.000 (0.249 / ▼0.249)
P : 0.167 (0.371 / ▼0.204)

Fluminense:
T : 0.474 (0.561 / ▼0.087)
H : 0.700 (0.655 / ▲0.045)
A : 0.222 (0.446 / ▼0.224)
P : 0.167 (0.408 / ▼0.241)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
50%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
50%
Underdog : 50%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 20%
30%
AWAY : 50%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 23 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 48%
39%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Gremio : 40% (▲ 10%)
27% (▼ 2%)
Fluminense : 33% (▼ 8%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.0 - 1.3 (Model B.4)
Gremio : 20% (▼ 10%)
35% (▲ 6%)
Fluminense : 45% (▲ 4%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 100%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.6 - 3.3 - 2.7
Gremio : 36% (▲ 6%)
28% (▼ 1%)
Fluminense : 35% (▼ 6%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 1 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 100%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (36%) Trend: 23 game(s)

HOME : 35%
D : 35%
AWAY : 30%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 33%
AWAY : 23%

Based on Home team = 2.6 (36%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 30%
D : 37%
AWAY : 33%


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