Vasco

2 - 1

Gremio

Steel and Grit: 4 fixtures undefeated for Vasco.

Sun, Mar 22, 2026 19:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 43%
D: 14%
Away: 43%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.94 - 3.45 - 2.70)
HOMETEAM: 34%
29%
AWAYTEAM: 37%

Weight: [Close] (15.79)
Intensity: [Extreme] (84.21)

Vasco (Fact Index 2.94):
Expected Win % is 34%, compared to a 36% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 67% in this event.

Gremio (Fact Index 2.70):
Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Vasco:
T : 0.286 (0.472 / ▼0.186)
H : 0.500 (0.559 / ▼0.059)
P : 0.333 (0.500 / ▼0.167)

Gremio:
T : 0.429 (0.559 / ▼0.130)
P : 0.500 (0.602 / ▼0.102)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 67%
33%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 67%
33%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 36%
27%
AWAY : 37%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 46%
27%
Underdog : 27%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 2.5 (Model A.)
Vasco : 38% (▲ 4%)
23% (▼ 6%)
Gremio : 39% (▲ 2%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 1.5 (Model B.4)
Vasco : 26% (▼ 8%)
29% (-)
Gremio : 45% (▲ 8%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.1 - 3.3 - 3.5
Vasco : 44% (▲ 10%)
29% (-)
Gremio : 27% (▼ 10%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 9 game(s)

HOME : 67%
D : 22%
AWAY : 11%

Based on Home team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 43%
AWAY : 17%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 44%
D : 43%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 2.1 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 27%
AWAY : 13%


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