Rennes

3 - 1

PSG

Fri, Feb 13, 2026 18:00 (UTC)


FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 30%
D: 10%
Away: 60%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.85 - 5.88 - 1.72)
HOMETEAM: 26%
17%
AWAYTEAM: 57%

Rennes (Fact Index 3.85): Expected Win % is 26%, compared to a 25% actual win rate for identical index values.

PSG (Fact Index 1.72): Expected Win % is 57%, compared to a 62% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 25%
13%
AWAY : 62%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 17%
17%
Underdog : 66%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Rennes : 44% (▲ 18%)
18% (▲ 1%)
PSG : 38% (▼ 19%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.7 - 2.8 (Model B.3)
Rennes : 20% (▼ 6%)
16% (▼ 1%)
PSG : 64% (▲ 7%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.3 / Data Completion Rate : 90.5%)


Average Odds : 6.7 - 5.2 - 1.4
Rennes : 14% (▼ 12%)
18% (▲ 1%)
PSG : 68% (▲ 11%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 11%
D : 22%
AWAY : 67%

Awayteam = 1.4 Trend:

HOME : 23%
D : 20%
AWAY : 57%

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