Lens

3 - 0

Metz

Fortress Lens: 2-match unbeaten streak. Meanwhile, Metz Form has dropped with a 4-match slump.

Sun, Mar 8, 2026 14:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 25%
D: 25%
Away: 50%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.59 - 5.88 - 5.00)
HOMETEAM: 63%
17%
AWAYTEAM: 20%

Lens (Fact Index 1.59): Expected Win % is 63%, compared to a 89% actual win rate for identical index values.

Metz (Fact Index 5.00): Expected Win % is 20%, compared to a 11% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 89%
0%
AWAY : 11%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 86%
0%
Underdog : 14%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Lens : 62% (▼ 1%)
18% (▲ 1%)
Metz : 20% (-)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.8 - 1.1 (Model B.3)
Lens : 55% (▼ 8%)
20% (▲ 3%)
Metz : 25% (▲ 5%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: v B.3 / 71.4%)


Average Odds : 1.3 - 6.2 - 10.3
Lens : 76% (▲ 13%)
15% (▼ 2%)
Metz : 9% (▼ 11%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 84%
D : 13%
AWAY : 3%

Hometeam = 1.3 Trend:

HOME : 70%
D : 13%
AWAY : 17%

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