Vitória

1 - 0

Gremio

Gremio road woes intensify with a 4th straight away loss.

Mon, Sep 7, 2026 23:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 17%
D: 33%
Away: 50%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.94 - 3.85 - 2.50)
HOMETEAM: 34%
26%
AWAYTEAM: 40%

Weight: [Close] (10.53)
Intensity: [Extreme] (89.47)

Vitória (Fact Index 2.94):
Expected Win % is 34%, compared to a 37% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Gremio (Fact Index 2.50):
Expected Win % is 40%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Vitória:
T : 0.320 (0.363 / ▼0.043)
H : 0.667 (0.679 / ▼0.012)
A : 0.000 (0.164 / ▼0.164)
P : 0.167 (0.089 / ▲0.078)

Gremio:
T : 0.292 (0.445 / ▼0.153)
H : 0.583 (0.629 / ▼0.046)
A : 0.000 (0.193 / ▼0.193)
P : 0.333 (0.419 / ▼0.086)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 37%
23%
AWAY : 40%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 30 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 67%
20%
Underdog : 13%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.3 - 0.8 (Model A.)
Vitória : 42% (▲ 8%)
27% (▲ 1%)
Gremio : 31% (▼ 9%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.7 - 1.6 (Model B.4)
Vitória : 14% (▼ 20%)
25% (▼ 1%)
Gremio : 61% (▲ 21%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.2 - 3.3 - 3.5
Vitória : 44% (▲ 10%)
29% (▲ 3%)
Gremio : 27% (▼ 13%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 12 game(s)

HOME : 58%
D : 17%
AWAY : 25%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 40%
D : 40%
AWAY : 20%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 30%
AWAY : 23%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (44%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 27%
D : 20%
AWAY : 53%


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