Albirex Niigata

2 - 1

Tokushima Vortis

Albirex Niigata remains rock solid in their last 6 home fixtures.

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 05:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 67%
D: 0%
Away: 33%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.85 - 7.14 - 3.13)
HOMETEAM: 54%
14%
AWAYTEAM: 32%

Weight: [Close] (25.00)
Intensity: [Fierce] (75.00)

Albirex Niigata (Fact Index 1.85):
Expected Win % is 54%, compared to a 100% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 100% in this event.

Tokushima Vortis (Fact Index 3.13):
Expected Win % is 32%, compared to a 0% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Albirex Niigata:
T : 0.625 (0.472 / ▲0.153)
H : 1.000 (0.807 / ▲0.193)
A : 0.250 (0.289 / ▼0.039)
P : 0.667 (0.466 / ▲0.201)

Tokushima Vortis:
T : 0.500 (0.500 / -)
H : 0.750 (1.000 / ▼0.250)
A : 0.250 (0.218 / ▲0.032)
P : 0.667 (0.592 / ▲0.075)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 2 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 5 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 100%
0%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.4 - 0.7 (Model A.)
Albirex Niigata : 53% (▼ 1%)
21% (▲ 7%)
Tokushima Vortis : 26% (▼ 6%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.9 - 1.4 (Model B.4)
Albirex Niigata : 26% (▼ 28%)
26% (▲ 12%)
Tokushima Vortis : 48% (▲ 16%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 76.2%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.5 - 3.1 - 2.7
Albirex Niigata : 37% (▼ 17%)
30% (▲ 16%)
Tokushima Vortis : 34% (▲ 2%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 3 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 67%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 2.5 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 34%
D : 33%
AWAY : 33%


Football

Odds Trend: 19 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 37%
AWAY : 26%

Based on Home team = 2.5 (37%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 30%
AWAY : 37%


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