Bahia

2 - 2

Santos

Sat, Apr 25, 2026 21:30 (UTC)


FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 20%
D: 40%
Away: 40%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.22 - 3.70 - 3.57)
HOMETEAM: 45%
27%
AWAYTEAM: 28%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (47.37)
Intensity: [Moderate] (52.63)

Bahia (Fact Index 2.22):
Expected Win % is 45%, compared to a 44% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 34% in this event.

Santos (Fact Index 3.57):
Expected Win % is 28%, compared to a 28% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 33% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Bahia:
T : 0.545 (0.572 / ▼0.027)
H : 0.400 (0.711 / ▼0.311)
P : 0.500 (0.500 / -)

Santos:
T : 0.250 (0.444 / ▼0.194)
A : 0.000 (0.313 / ▼0.313)
P : 0.333 (0.457 / ▼0.124)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 34%
33%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 3 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 34%
33%
Underdog : 33%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 29 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 44%
28%
AWAY : 28%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 22 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 36%
32%
Underdog : 32%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Bahia : 47% (▲ 2%)
24% (▼ 3%)
Santos : 29% (▲ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Bahia : 48% (▲ 3%)
25% (▼ 2%)
Santos : 27% (▼ 1%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 71.4%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.6 - 4.5
Bahia : 53% (▲ 8%)
26% (▼ 1%)
Santos : 21% (▼ 7%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 13 game(s)

HOME : 54%
D : 31%
AWAY : 15%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (53%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 60%
D : 23%
AWAY : 17%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 57%
D : 23%
AWAY : 20%

Based on Home team = 1.8 (53%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 53%
D : 30%
AWAY : 17%


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