Atletico MG

0 - 4

Flamengo RJ

Losing Skid Hits 3 for Struggling Atletico MG. Meanwhile, Flamengo RJ Rolling: 4 Straight Wins.

Sun, Apr 26, 2026 23:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 22%
D: 22%
Away: 56%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.85 - 3.85 - 2.08)
HOMETEAM: 26%
26%
AWAYTEAM: 48%

Weight: [Gap Exists] (52.63)
Intensity: [Moderate] (47.37)

Atletico MG (Fact Index 3.85):
Expected Win % is 26%, compared to a 22% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Flamengo RJ (Fact Index 2.08):
Expected Win % is 48%, compared to a 43% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 100% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Atletico MG:
T : 0.333 (0.478 / ▼0.145)
H : 0.600 (0.629 / ▼0.029)
P : 0.500 (0.608 / ▼0.108)

Flamengo RJ:
T : 0.636 (0.711 / ▼0.075)
A : 0.500 (0.538 / ▼0.038)
P : 0.667 (0.687 / ▼0.020)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
0%
AWAY : 100%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 100%
0%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 23 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 22%
35%
AWAY : 43%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 18 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 45%
33%
Underdog : 22%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Atletico MG : 38% (▲ 12%)
25% (▼ 1%)
Flamengo RJ : 37% (▼ 11%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.8 - 1.2 (Model B.4)
Atletico MG : 24% (▼ 2%)
31% (▲ 5%)
Flamengo RJ : 45% (▼ 3%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 85.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 3.8 - 3.3 - 2.0
Atletico MG : 25% (▼ 1%)
28% (▲ 2%)
Flamengo RJ : 47% (▼ 1%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 2 game(s)

HOME : 0%
D : 0%
AWAY : 100%

Based on Away team = 2.0 (47%) Trend: 9 game(s)

HOME : 33%
D : 11%
AWAY : 56%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 23%
D : 30%
AWAY : 47%

Based on Away team = 2.0 (47%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 27%
D : 17%
AWAY : 56%


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