Estoril

0 - 0

Arouca

Tactical Masterclass: Arouca reach 2 without dropping all points.

Mon, Sep 7, 2026 19:15 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 29%
D: 29%
Away: 43%

Home team Side

Away team Side

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (3.70 - 4.76 - 1.92)
HOMETEAM: 27%
21%
AWAYTEAM: 52%

Weight: [Distant] (81.25)
Intensity: [One-Sided] (18.75)

Estoril (Fact Index 3.70):
Expected Win % is 27%, compared to a 40% actual win rate for identical index values.
Nevertheless, they maintain an actual win rate of 0% in this event.

Arouca (Fact Index 1.92):
Expected Win % is 52%, compared to a 28% actual win rate for identical index values.
However, they are currently recording a 0% actual win rate in this tournament.


Expected Win Percentage

Estoril:
T : 0.000 (0.164 / ▼0.164)
P : 0.000 (0.164 / ▼0.164)

Arouca:
T : 0.750 (0.751 / ▼0.001)
P : 0.750 (0.751 / ▼0.001)

* Note Abbr. : Season Win% ( Expected Win% / Season W% - Expected Win%)
** Abbr. T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)


Competition

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 0%
100%
AWAY : 0%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 1 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 0%
100%
Underdog : 0%


Football

Results of the same FACT INDEX : 25 Game(s) In real-time

HOME : 40%
32%
AWAY : 28%

The Favorite vs Underdog of the same FACT INDEX : 21 Game(s) in Average Odds

Favorite : 43%
38%
Underdog : 19%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.2 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Estoril : 29% (▲ 2%)
23% (▲ 2%)
Arouca : 48% (▼ 4%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.1 - 1.6 (Model B.4)
Estoril : 46% (▲ 19%)
23% (▲ 2%)
Arouca : 31% (▼ 21%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation.
Current: ver. B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 66.7%

Fact Index - Prediction Variance


Average Odds : 2.2 - 3.4 - 3.1
Estoril : 43% (▲ 16%)
27% (▲ 6%)
Arouca : 30% (▼ 22%)

Data Source: Oddsportal

Please feel free to research player deployments or other detailed matters on your own; a brief search will yield a wealth of information.
Fact Index - Average Odds Variance


Competition

Odds Trend: 3 game(s)

HOME : 67%
D : 33%
AWAY : 0%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (43%) Trend: 28 game(s)

HOME : 50%
D : 29%
AWAY : 21%


Football

Odds Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 47%
D : 40%
AWAY : 13%

Based on Home team = 2.2 (43%) Trend: 30 game(s)

HOME : 37%
D : 50%
AWAY : 13%


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