Brighton

2 - 1

Nottingham

Impressive: Brighton reach 2 matches undefeated. Meanwhile, Losing Skid Hits 2 for Struggling Nottingham.

Sun, Mar 1, 2026 14:00 (UTC)


Facts

Brighton :
Danny Welbeck 15'
Diego Gómez 6'

Nottingham :
Morgan Gibbs-White 13'

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 44%
D: 33%
Away: 22%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.70 - 2.78 - 3.70)
HOMETEAM: 37%
36%
AWAYTEAM: 27%

Brighton (Fact Index 2.70): Expected Win % is 37%, compared to a 46% actual win rate for identical index values.

Nottingham (Fact Index 3.70): Expected Win % is 27%, compared to a 27% actual win rate for identical index values.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 46%
27%
AWAY : 27%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 39%
28%
Underdog : 33%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Brighton : 43% (▲ 6%)
31% (▼ 5%)
Nottingham : 26% (▼ 1%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 0.8 - 0.7 (Model B.3)
Brighton : 39% (▲ 2%)
33% (▼ 3%)
Nottingham : 28% (▲ 1%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.3 / Data Completion Rate : 90.5%)


Average Odds : 2.1 - 3.6 - 3.5
Brighton : 45% (▲ 8%)
27% (▼ 9%)
Nottingham : 28% (▲ 1%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 44%
D : 23%
AWAY : 33%

Hometeam = 2.1 Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 30%
AWAY : 30%

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