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Aston Villa

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Nottingham

Aston Villa turns their stadium into a fortress with 7 straight home wins.

Thu, May 7, 2026 19:00 (UTC)

Facts

  • Aston Villa turns their stadium into a fortress with 7 straight home wins.
  • Aston Villa's unbeaten stretch at home hits 7 games.

    • Aston Villa :
    John McGinn 80', 77'
    Emiliano Buendía 58' (Pen.)
    Ollie Watkins 36'
    Nottingham :
    -
    FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
    HEAD TO HEAD

    Last 10 games

    Home: 50%
    D: 20%
    Away: 30%

    Home vs Away

    Away vs Home

    These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

    FACT INDEX (1.96 - 6.25 - 3.03)
    HOMETEAM: 51%
    16%
    AWAYTEAM: 33%

    Aston Villa (Fact Index 1.96): Expected Win % is 51%, compared to a 54% actual win rate for identical index values.

    Nottingham (Fact Index 3.03): Expected Win % is 33%, compared to a 31% actual win rate for identical index values.

    Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

    Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

    HOME : 54%
    15%
    AWAY : 31%

    The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

    Favorite : 42%
    29%
    Underdog : 29%

    PREDICTION
    Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
    Aston Villa : 63% (▲ 12%)
    16% (-)
    Nottingham : 21% (▼ 12%)

    |Season Win%|Expected Win%|Expected Win% - Season Win%
    T | Aston Villa | 0.846 | 0.807 | ▼ 0.039
    T | Nottingham | 0.533 | 0.711 | ▲ 0.178
    H | Aston Villa | 1.000 | 0.881 | ▼ 0.119
    A | Nottingham | 0.429 | 0.660 | ▲ 0.231
    P | Aston Villa | 0.833 | 0.822 | ▼ 0.011
    P | Nottingham | 0.500 | 0.559 | ▲ 0.059
    T: Season, H: Home, A: Away, P: Power Ranking (Last 6)

    Expected Goals (xG) : 1.4 - 0.9 (Model B.4)
    Aston Villa : 45% (▼ 6%)
    32% (▲ 16%)
    Nottingham : 23% (▼ 10%)

    Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.4 / Data Completion Rate : 95.2%)

    Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.9 - 4.6
    Aston Villa : 54% (▲ 3%)
    25% (▲ 9%)
    Nottingham : 21% (▼ 12%)

    Odds Trend:

    HOME : 40%
    D : 37%
    AWAY : 23%

    Hometeam = 1.8 Trend:

    HOME : 50%
    D : 20%
    AWAY : 30%

    Aston Villa

    Last 3:
    Premier League 2026-05-03 Aston Villa 1 - 2 Tottenham
    Europa League 2026-04-30 Nottingham 1 - 0 Aston Villa
    Premier League 2026-04-25 Fulham 1 - 0 Aston Villa

    Next 3:
    Premier League 2026-05-10 Burnley - Aston Villa
    Premier League 2026-05-17 Aston Villa - Liverpool
    Europa League 2026-05-20 Freiburg - Aston Villa

    Last 20 games

    HOME :

    AWAY :

    Nottingham

    Last 3:
    Premier League 2026-05-04 Chelsea 1 - 3 Nottingham
    Europa League 2026-04-30 Nottingham 1 - 0 Aston Villa
    Premier League 2026-04-24 Sunderland 0 - 5 Nottingham

    Next 3:
    Premier League 2026-05-10 Nottingham - Newcastle
    Premier League 2026-05-17 Manchester Utd - Nottingham

    Last 20 games

    HOME :

    AWAY :

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