Leeds

3 - 1

Nottingham

Fri, Feb 6, 2026 20:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 0%
Away: 50%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (2.78 - 4.17 - 2.44)
HOMETEAM: 36%
24%
AWAYTEAM: 41%

Leeds (Fact Index 2.78): Expected Win % is 36%, compared to a 34% actual win rate for identical index values.

Nottingham (Fact Index 2.44): Expected Win % is 41%, compared to a 33% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 34%
33%
AWAY : 33%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 50%
33%
Underdog : 17%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.0 - 1.5 (Model A.)
Leeds : 43% (▲ 7%)
29% (▲ 5%)
Nottingham : 29% (▼ 12%)


Average Odds : 2.2 - 3.3 - 3.4
Leeds : 43% (▲ 7%)
29% (▲ 5%)
Nottingham : 28% (▼ 13%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 60%
D : 23%
AWAY : 17%

Hometeam = 2.2 Trend:

HOME : 40%
D : 27%
AWAY : 33%

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