Aston Villa

3 - 1

Nottingham

Sat, Jan 3, 2026 12:30 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 50%
D: 20%
Away: 30%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.59 - 7.69 - 4.00)
HOMETEAM: 63%
13%
AWAYTEAM: 25%

Aston Villa (Fact Index 1.59): Expected Win % is 63%, compared to a 50% actual win rate for identical index values.

Nottingham (Fact Index 4.00): Expected Win % is 25%, compared to a 20% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 50%
30%
AWAY : 20%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 56%
33%
Underdog : 11%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 1.5 - 0.5 (Model A.)
Aston Villa : 70% (▲ 7%)
19% (▲ 6%)
Nottingham : 13% (▼ 12%)


Average Odds : 1.8 - 3.7 - 4.5
Aston Villa : 53% (▼ 10%)
26% (▲ 13%)
Nottingham : 21% (▼ 4%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 50%
D : 20%
AWAY : 30%

Hometeam = 1.8 Trend:

HOME : 37%
D : 23%
AWAY : 40%

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