Manchester City

2 - 1

Newcastle

Manchester City Home Streak: 13 Games Without Defeat.

Sat, Feb 21, 2026 20:00 (UTC)


Facts

FACT INDEX AND PREDICTION
HEAD TO HEAD

Last 10 games

Home: 70%
D: 10%
Away: 20%

Home vs Away

Away vs Home

These symbols () are Sorted by Newest.

FACT INDEX (1.79 - 4.55 - 4.55)
HOMETEAM: 56%
22%
AWAYTEAM: 22%

Manchester City (Fact Index 1.79): Expected Win % is 56%, compared to a 58% actual win rate for identical index values.

Newcastle (Fact Index 4.55): Expected Win % is 22%, compared to a 21% actual win rate for identical index values.

Note that the limited sample size makes it difficult to establish this as a definitive long-term trend.

Actual win rate : Max 30 Games / Real time.

HOME : 58%
21%
AWAY : 21%

The Favorite vs Underdog. (Average Odds)

Favorite : 50%
25%
Underdog : 25%

PREDICTION
Expected Goals (xG) : 2.5 - 1.0 (Model A.)
Manchester City : 65% (▲ 9%)
20% (▼ 2%)
Newcastle : 15% (▼ 7%)

Expected Goals (xG) : 2.2 - 0.9 (Model B.3)
Manchester City : 68% (▲ 12%)
21% (▼ 1%)
Newcastle : 11% (▼ 11%)

Model B is an experimental predictive simulation. (Current: ver.B.3 / Data Completion Rate : 100%)


Average Odds : 1.5 - 5.1 - 5.9
Manchester City : 65% (▲ 9%)
19% (▼ 3%)
Newcastle : 16% (▼ 6%)

Odds Trend:

HOME : 60%
D : 27%
AWAY : 13%

Hometeam = 1.5 Trend:

HOME : 64%
D : 23%
AWAY : 13%

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